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Assessment of Changes in International Prices for Crude Oil Amid the Global Instability of its Production and Consumption

Affiliations

  • Financial and Economic Institute of the North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov, Yakutsk, Russian Federation
  • Department of Regional Economic and Social Research of the Yakut Scientific Center of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yakutsk, Russian Federation

Abstract


Objectives: The article substantiates the need to assess changes in international prices for crude oil amid the global instability of its production and consumption. Methods/Statistical Analysis: The authors determined the classification of the factors influencing the pricing in the world oil market. The basic methods of research are the method of multivariate correlation and regression analysis, by means of which the main pricing factors were identified; methods of historical and empirical analysis that enabled the authors to determine the regularities of drawing up forecast scenarios of oil prices. Findings: The study presents a new consistent methodological approach to the substantiation of assessment of the impact of major macroeconomic factors on the change in the level of oil prices in the context of instable situation in the global oil market. In contrast to the modern concepts of evaluation of factors affecting the world oil market, the novelty of this approach consists in determining the classification of the main macroeconomic and geopolitical factors in each historical period of the oil market development. The advantage of this approach is the use of the method of multivariate correlation and regression analysis. Analyzing the history of the formation of oil prices in the world market influencing the economy of states, it is possible to develop in the future the most realistic forecast scenarios for the oil price level change and to evaluate its impact on the further development of the world economy and the geopolitics of the leading states. Application/Improvements: The presented scientific approach identifies the main factors of the global oil market development, taking into account changes in the energy balance of hydrocarbons production amid global instability regarding their production and consumption.

Keywords

Assessment, Crude Oil, Price, Prognosis, World Market.

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