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Trend Analysis of Precipitation by MK Test in Kumaon Region of Uttarakhand (1901–2010)


  • Department of Civil Engineering, GEU, 566/6, Bell Road, Society Area, Clement Town, Dehradun - 248002, Uttarakhand, India
  • School of Civil Engineering, LPU, Jalandhar-Delhi, G.T. Road, National Highway 1, Jalandhar, Phagwara - 144411,Punjab, India


Objective: To identify trend in annual precipitation time series using the M-K and Sen’s T-tests. Methods/Analysis: Climate change has disrupted the major climatic parameters at a global level. However, there is no equal change for all regions and have localized intensity especially in India. These changes should be identified nearby to manage the natural water resources. One of the most important climatic parameters is precipitation. As a starting point towards the apprehension of global climate change precipitation has been widely measured. The main objective of this study is to analyze the temporal variability of precipitation for the period 110 years, to enhance the hydrological status of the Uttarakhand districts of Kumaon region. The aim is to identify trend in annual precipitation time series using the M-K and Sen’s T tests. Sen’s estimator method has been used to estimate the extent of trend in precipitation. Before applying the M-K test for the trend in precipitation auto correlation effect is reduced. Finding: The analysis of M-K test shows non-significance increasing (positive) trend on annual basis. These areas experience a heavier rainfall for duration of shorter splash, which leads to very less scope for groundwater recharge and more runoff in these areas. Thus, these findings give a broad overview of the regional rainfall behavior in the study area. Applications/Improvements: The similar study can be carried out for other places as well with more locations for more diversity in the results attributing to the surroundings etc. to get a more clear and precise view about the trend in annual precipitation.


Mann-Kendall Tests, Non-Parametric Tests and Auto Correlation, Precipitation, Sen’s Estimator Tests.

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