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Issue No:7, Vol.3 |
July - 2010 |
ISSN: 0974-5645 |
| RESEARCH ARTICLES |
Viewers & PDF |
| 22. Estimation and implementations of conditional probabilities of occurrence of moderate earthquakes in India. M.L.Sharma and R. Kumar. Indian J.Sci.Technol. Vol. 3, Issue 7, pp: 808-817. Domain site: http://www.indjst.org. |
 
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- Abstract
The present paper presents conditional probabilities of occurrence of moderate earthquakes considering the likelihood
of occurrence of the next large earthquake in the seismically active regions in India where the last such occurrence has
crossed the return periods. The conditional probabilities have been estimated using Weibull distribution. The
estimations have been carried out for 24 seismogenic sources earmarked in the Indian subcontinent. The cumulative
and conditional probabilities have been interpreted with respect to the last earthquake occurrence in the time intervals
of 15 and 50 years. Most of the seismically active regions are found to have lesser recurrence of earthquakes with
specific magnitudes as compared with the estimations being carried out using classical probabilistic seismic hazard
assessment approach.
- Keywords: Conditional probability, earthquake hazard, Weibull distribution
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